Validated thesis "Twitter mood predicts the stock market" and succeeded 60% accuracy up-down prediction

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"Twitter mood predicts the stock market"

Its conclusion can be roughly summarized below.

  • Calmness on twitter correlates with Dow Jones Index Average and it enables us to predict up-down of DJI index on 87.6% accuracy

Validation steps

  1. Extract calmness score from Twitter dataset of 2009
  2. Predict up-down of DJI Index from calmness score with Xgboost library

Plotted calmness score

DJI Index of 2009


I successfully predicted up-down on 59.5% accuracy.

If you doubt of this result, please try prediction with my data or analyze it on statistical view.

If you have any question.
Please mail to [at]

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