【1/3】The History of Technological Innovation: -What Astro Boy Teaches Us-
■ Introduction
April 7, 2003. On this day, Japan celebrated a “birthday” that captured the nation's attention. It was the birthday of Astro Boy.
Osamu Tezuka's Astro Boy, serialized starting in 1952, depicted a future set in 2003 where humans coexisted with robots possessing advanced AI. Japan at that time was in its post-war reconstruction period. In an era when even televisions were not yet common in households, Osamu Tezuka introduced concepts like “robots with hearts,” “artificial intelligence,” and “robot laws” to the world.
So, did Osamu Tezuka ‘predict’ the future?
No, that's not it. What he did was a thought experiment: “viewing the future from the perspective of a future person.”
■ Development: Historical Singularities
Looking back at the history of technological innovation reveals a common pattern.
Hiraga Gennai and the Electricity Generator (1770s)
During the Edo period, Hiraga Gennai repaired and publicly demonstrated an electrostatic generator called the “Eleki-teru.” To people of the time, it was merely a “mysterious experimental device.” Many questioned, “What use is it?”
Yet from our modern perspective, it marked the origin of the electrical civilization. The Eleki-teru itself didn't change the world. But the concept that “electricity can do something” paved the way for later developments in power generation, transmission, and electrical appliances.
The Wright Brothers and Powered Flight (1903)
On December 17, 1903, the Wright Brothers achieved the first powered flight in human history. The flight lasted a mere 12 seconds, covering a distance of 36 meters. Contemporary newspapers were dismissive. “Flying like a bird is a pipe dream.”
But we in the modern era know. Those 12 seconds marked the beginning of the massive aviation industry. Now, 120 years after the Wright brothers, over 4 billion people fly annually.
Perspective at the Time vs. Future (Modern) Perspective
Hiraga Gennai's Era:
Contemporary View: “A novel experimental device”
Future View: “The origin of the electrical civilization”
The Wright Brothers' Era:
Contemporary View: “A mere 12-second flight”
Future View: “The beginning of the aviation industry”
People of that time couldn't see how that technology would change the world. But to us, the people of the future, it was an obvious “singularity.”
■ Reflection: What is the Future Person's Perspective?
What Osamu Tezuka did in ‘Astro Boy’ was precisely this thought experiment from the “future person's perspective.”
In the 1950s, Osamu Tezuka imagined himself as a “future person from 2003.”
- What problems might arise in a society where robots and humans coexist?
- If AI becomes highly advanced, how will the definition of “mind” change?
- Should robots have human rights?
And astonishingly, in 2025, we are confronting precisely these questions. Do AI systems like ChatGPT and Claude possess “consciousness”? Who owns the copyright to AI-generated content? What are the ethics of the AI era?
Tezuka did not ‘predict’ the future. He thought from the perspective of “What would it look like if I were a person from the future?”
Why could Osamu Tezuka think from a “future person's perspective”?
This was likely because he was both a realist and a romantic.
As a medical doctor, Tezuka possessed scientific knowledge and logical thinking. He could calmly analyze the technological trends of his time and foresee “what lies along this trajectory.” This was his realist side.
On the other hand, he continually envisioned dreams like “Wouldn't it be wonderful if the future were like this?” or “What if robots and humans could become friends?” This was his romantic side.
This fusion of realism and romance made the “perspective of a future person” possible. He envisioned an ideal future while keeping a firm eye on actual technological trends. Only with both of these elements could a convincing “future” be born.
■ The Bridge: So, what about us in 2025?
People in Hiraga Gennai's time never imagined the Elekiter would be the starting point of the electrical age.
People in the Wright brothers' time never imagined a 12-second flight would give birth to the aviation industry.
Tezuka Osamu envisioned 2003 from a “future person's perspective,” and many of his predictions became reality.
So, what about us in 2025?
ChatGPT has only been around for two years. AI is evolving rapidly. Many people feel both anxiety and anticipation, wondering "What will happen next?"
But what if we imagined ourselves as "future people from 2045" and looked back at the present?
We'll explore that answer next time in [Part 2/3]. Doraemon's vision of the future, and the inevitability of AI and the Singularity.
【Next: 【2/3】Singularity and AI: -The Future Doraemon Showed Us-】